[0319] Argument Exercise 45

The argument states that the arctice deer population declines because they can't follow their age-old migration patterns, which is due to the melt of the sea ice. Its assumption is that recent global warming results in the melt of the sea ice around the island. At first glance, the conclusion seems to be persuasive, however, this argument is we can find it doubtful beacause of the following reasons:

On In the first place, there is no direct evidence indicationg the relationship between the global warming and the disappearance of the local sea ice. On the one hand, global warming is a global environment change, we can't deduce a local change from it. Such deduction goes too far. On the other hand, we can not confirm if they have some casualty just only because they happened on the same time simultaneously. It could be just an coincidence. We can not draw the conclusion about the correlation between them. It is the common logical error of "just after this and because of this".

Second, we can not judge whether the effect of the global warming is negative or not. On the contrary, The global warming, which can help the growth and development of the plants and prolong the life span so that the arctic deer can find out more food on the same island without keeping migration, may inversly improve the survival rateof the deers, not decrease.

Furthermore, the decline of the arctic deer may be the result of other reason, such as more hunters come in, their skins become more expensive or more enimies appear. Without the detail further investigation and analyzation, we can't easily thoughtlessly draw the conclusion that the decline of the arctic deers must be due to the decease of the sea ice.

Consequently, the assumption of the argument does not have no sufficient reliability reliable contention to support itself. It connects correlates two different things together and doesn't show the without accountable evidence. We can't draw the same conclusion by current evidence which the argument provides. If we can find there would be more data about the correlation between local decrease of the sea ice and the global temprature warming in detail, or the arguer could try to collect more description about the life environment of the deers, we may find more truth about the decline of the arctic deers.