[0321] The Argument 57

The agrument states that the merge of the garbage collection department is beneficial because of the observation of the decling of the complaint reported. Thus, the arguer deduces that closing the libarary in Pollixton and using the one int Castorville would produce the same benefits. The deduction sounds to be convinsive, however, there are some logic fallacy concealed behind it.

First, the management of the library is different from that of the garbage collection department. The success in the garbage collection department can not guarantee the same success in the library. The habit of the usage of library in the two village might be quiete different. We can not easily predict the effect after we move the library to Castorvill. It may inversely decline the usage of the new library, which is too far for the residents in Polluxton.

Second, the argument has a logic fallacy so-called "After this and because of this". No evidence can explain the correlation between the merge of the two garbage collection deparment and the decline of the complaints. They are two independant things. Without a valid survey which can illuminate the correlation of these two things, the asumption of the argument would still be disputable.

Furthermore, the decline of the complaints may be due to other unknown reason, such as a more amicable manager in the new department in Castorville. It is not a reliable predictor for the service. We can not draw such conclusion without more valid evidence.

As a result, the argument can not construct a firm conclusion by its ethreal asumption. If the arguer can conduct more survey to show the attitude of the residece toward the changement of the library, or more invetigation about the habit of the usage of library, the argument can gain more reliablity and validity.